Inicio:
Inglaterra are favoured with a 49% win probability in this knockout tie. Market-implied indicators signals point to a moderately open match, with neither side holding a clear advantage in the match-winner market, but Noruega still carry enough attacking threat to keep both-teams-to-score in play. Scoring pressure is more likely to build after half-time than arrive early.
1-1
38,7 %
0-1
9,5 %
1-0
7,9 %
0-0
7,3 %
0-2
6,8 %
1-2
5,9 %
El ganador se enfrentará a Argentina en Semifinales
This match profiles as moderate-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 56.4% probability. Noruega are expected to score at least once with 68.9% certainty, and a single goal is the most likely outcome (Over 1.5: 34.4%). Inglaterra's scoring outlook is healthy — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 81.3%, meaning a clean sheet for Noruega is unlikely at 17.9%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 80.4% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 67.6% in the first half. Team to Score First favours Inglaterra at 54.7%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 7.5% chance.
The most likely match script is Inglaterra at half-time, Inglaterra at full-time (27.2%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, Inglaterra at full-time (16.8%), meaning Inglaterra break a level first half to win. Noruega's most likely winning script is Noruega at half-time, Noruega at full-time (12.6%). A comeback scenario — Noruega leading then Inglaterra winning — sits at just 4%.
Noruega enter as clear underdogs at 25.1% win probability. Their advancement chance, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 38.1%. The Double Chance market prices Draw/Noruega at 25.4%, meaning Noruega have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.