Inicio:
Francia are favoured with a 40% win probability in this knockout tie. Market-implied indicators signals point to a tight, low-scoring match, with neither side holding a clear advantage in the match-winner market, but España still carry enough attacking threat to keep both-teams-to-score in play. Scoring pressure is more likely to build after half-time than arrive early.
0-2
39,8 %
1-1
13,3 %
0-1
12,4 %
1-2
6,2 %
0-3
6,2 %
2-1
5,2 %
El ganador se enfrentará a Argentina en Final
This match profiles as low-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 49.9% probability. Francia are expected to score at least once with 75.5% certainty, and a single goal is the most likely outcome (Over 1.5: 42.7%). España's scoring outlook is healthy — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 70.3%, meaning a clean sheet for Francia is unlikely at 29.9%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 77.1% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 66.0% in the first half. Team to Score First favours Francia at 48.4%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 10.1% chance.
The most likely match script is Francia at half-time, Francia at full-time (21.5%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, a draw at full-time (16.9%), meaning the sides stay level through both halves in regular time. España's most likely winning script is España at half-time, España at full-time (15.8%). A comeback scenario — España leading then Francia winning — sits at just 3.3%.
Francia enter as clear underdogs at 39.6% win probability. Their advancement chance, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 0%. The Double Chance market prices Draw/Francia at 34.7%, meaning Francia have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.
If Francia advance, their championship probability rises from 0% to 0% (0.0). If España pull off a win, their title chance would jump from 58.9% to 58.9% (0.0). The winner will face Winner of Inglaterra vs Argentina in the Final.