AI-assisted market data, converted into World Cup knockout predictions
Championship Probability
90 Minutes Result
Predicted: 0-0 (75%) · 1-0 (11%) · 0-1 (4%)
Match Winner Probability
90 Minutes Result
Predicted: 3-5 (19%) · 2-4 (4%) · 1-3 (4%)
This match profiles as low-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 41.2% probability. Spain are expected to score at least once with 72.1% certainty, and a single goal is the most likely outcome (Over 1.5: 38.4%). Argentina's scoring outlook is more limited — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 63.7%, meaning a clean sheet for Spain is unlikely at 36.3%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 72.1% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 61.4% in the first half. Team to Score First favours Spain at 49.0%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 12.7% chance.
The most likely match script is Spain at half-time, Spain at full-time (22.2%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, a draw at full-time (19.6%), meaning the sides stay level through both halves in regular time. Argentina's most likely winning script is Argentina at half-time, Argentina at full-time (14.1%). A comeback scenario — Argentina leading then Spain winning — sits at just 3.0%.
Argentina are slight underdogs at 26.9% win probability. Their probability of winning the World Cup, including extra time and penalties, sits at approximately 42.8%. The combined Draw/Argentina probability is 29.3%, meaning Argentina have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.
This match profiles as high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals implied at 65.7% probability. France are expected to score at least once with 84.7% certainty, and 1-2 goals is their most likely range (Over 1.5: 60.4%). England's scoring outlook is healthy — their over 0.5 goals probability sits at 73.9%, meaning a clean sheet for France is unlikely at 26.6%.
The second half is projected to carry more weight, with 83.3% probability of at least one second-half goal versus 75.8% in the first half. Team to Score First favours France at 55.7%, while a goalless first 45 minutes has a 5.4% chance.
The most likely match script is France at half-time, France at full-time (29.9%). The second most probable path is a draw at half-time, France at full-time (15.4%), meaning France break a level first half to win. England's most likely winning script is England at half-time, England at full-time (13.4%). A comeback scenario — England leading then France winning — sits at just 4.4%.
England enter as clear underdogs at 25.1% win probability. Their probability of winning the Third Place match, including extra time and penalties, rises to approximately 37.0%. The combined Draw/England probability is 24.4%, meaning England have a realistic path to at least forcing extra time.