Methodology

Independent football data tracker. Not affiliated with FIFA or any football federation.

Monte Carlo Simulation

We run Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining group-stage fixtures. Each simulation samples match outcomes using market-implied probabilities and current standings, then records how often each team advances.

Pqualify(teami)=∑j=1N1[teami∈Qj]NP_{qualify}(team_i) = \frac{\sum_{j=1}^{N} \mathbf{1}[team_i \in Q_j]}{N}

Market Price Normalization

Raw market pricing data from multiple providers is converted into implied probabilities and normalized so that mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 100% before feeding the simulator.

Pnormalized=Praw∑kPraw,kP_{normalized} = \frac{P_{raw}}{\sum_{k} P_{raw,k}}

Data Sources

  • Level 1 — Live matches: real-time market pricing data refreshed during play.
  • Level 2 — Pre-match: market-implied probabilities from aggregated market data providers.
  • Level 3 — Fallback: statistical model estimates when market data is temporarily unavailable.
All probabilities are calculated from real-time market data and statistical simulations (Monte Carlo runs). For informational purposes only. Not official predictions and does not constitute betting advice.