Datos de mercado asistidos por IA, convertidos en predicciones eliminatorias del Mundial
Resultado en 90 minutos
Predicted: 0-2 (40%) · 1-1 (13%) · 0-1 (12%)
Resultado en 90 minutos
Predicted: 1-2 (24%) · 1-1 (23%) · 1-0 (15%)
If Francia beat España
If España beat Francia
If Inglaterra beat Argentina
If Argentina beat Inglaterra
SF losers play on 18 jul
España the most likely winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup with a 58.9% probability based on current betting market data.
España lead the championship race at 58.9%, followed by Argentina (41.1%), Francia (0.0%), and Inglaterra (0.0%).
The 2026 World Cup winner will come from the semi-final lineup of Francia, España, Inglaterra, and Argentina.
There is a 58.9% chance the 2026 World Cup will be won by a European team (Francia, España, and Inglaterra) versus a 41.1% chance for a South American winner (Argentina).
The probability gap between the most likely champion España (58.9%) and the least likely Inglaterra (0.0%) is 58.9 percentage points.
España's championship probability has risen from 10.8% before the knockout stage to 58.9% in the semi-finals.
Argentina's championship probability has risen from 17.2% before the knockout stage to 41.1% in the semi-finals.
Francia's championship probability has fallen from 19.3% before the knockout stage to 0.0% in the semi-finals.
Inglaterra's championship probability has fallen from 11.0% before the knockout stage to 0.0% in the semi-finals.
España strong favourites over Argentina in the overall title market.
Combined, the top two title contenders España and Argentina account for 100.0% of the championship probability.
Every remaining side has previously won the World Cup, so the 2026 champion will add to an existing title haul.
Market-implied probabilities currently give España roughly a 1-in-2 shot at winning the tournament.
Argentina enter the semi-finals seeking a 4th World Cup title, with a 41.1% chance of success.
Inglaterra enter the semi-finals seeking a 2nd World Cup title, with a 0.0% chance of success.
Francia a 0.0% chance of advancing past España in the semi-final, including extra time and penalties if needed.
España a 100.0% chance of reaching the final at the expense of Francia.
The Francia vs España semi-final is predicted to finish 0-2 in 90 minutes as the most likely scoreline.
A draw after 90 minutes is a 31.1% possibility in Francia vs España, which would send the match to extra time.
España strong favourites to advance at 100.0%.
Both teams are expected to score in Francia vs España with a probability of 56.4%.
The over 2.5 goals probability for Francia vs España is 49.9%, suggesting a moderate-scoring affair.
An upset by Francia over España still carries a 0.0% probability of deciding this semi-final.
Inglaterra a 0.0% chance of advancing past Argentina in the semi-final, including extra time and penalties if needed.
Argentina a 100.0% chance of reaching the final at the expense of Inglaterra.
The Inglaterra vs Argentina semi-final is predicted to finish 1-2 in 90 minutes as the most likely scoreline.
A draw after 90 minutes is a 32.9% possibility in Inglaterra vs Argentina, which would send the match to extra time.
Argentina strong favourites to advance at 100.0%.
Both teams are expected to score in Inglaterra vs Argentina with a probability of 48.6%.
The over 2.5 goals probability for Inglaterra vs Argentina is 39.7%, suggesting a low-scoring affair.
An upset by Inglaterra over Argentina still carries a 0.0% probability of deciding this semi-final.
España vs Argentina final is a likely scenario with a 100.0% probability.
If España meets Argentina in the final, España would have a 58.9% chance of winning the championship.
If Argentina reach a final against España, they would hold a 41.1% chance of lifting the trophy.
The predicted scoreline for España vs Argentina final is 1-1 with 12.3% probability.
España vs Argentina World Cup final would be a closely contested affair based on current probabilities.
In España vs Argentina final, the 90-minute win probability favours España at 44.6%.
España's path to the trophy through Francia then Argentina carries a 58.9% probability of completing this specific run.
España would enter España–Argentina final as strong favourites at 58.9% to become champions.
If Francia beats España in the semi-final, their championship probability rises to 0.0%.
Francia victory over España would set up a final against either Inglaterra or Argentina.
Should Francia cause an upset against España in the semi-final, they would enter the final as underdog with a 0.0% title chance.
Elimination of Francia in the semi-final would make España the new tournament favourite at 58.9%.
If España beats Francia in the semi-final, their championship probability rises to 58.9%.
España victory over Francia would set up a final against either Inglaterra or Argentina.
A routine España win over Francia would leave them with a 58.9% chance of winning the World Cup.
Elimination of España in the semi-final would make Francia the new tournament favourite at 0.0%.
The most likely title path for España after beating Francia runs through Argentina, carrying about a 58.9% joint probability.
If Inglaterra beats Argentina in the semi-final, their championship probability rises to 0.0%.
Inglaterra victory over Argentina would set up a final against either Francia or España.
Should Inglaterra cause an upset against Argentina in the semi-final, they would enter the final as underdog with a 0.0% title chance.
Elimination of Inglaterra in the semi-final would make España the new tournament favourite at 58.9%.
If Argentina beats Inglaterra in the semi-final, their championship probability rises to 41.1%.
Argentina victory over Inglaterra would set up a final against either Francia or España.
A routine Argentina win over Inglaterra would leave them with a 41.1% chance of winning the World Cup.
Elimination of Argentina in the semi-final would make Francia the new tournament favourite at 0.0%.
The most likely title path for Argentina after beating Inglaterra runs through España, carrying about a 41.1% joint probability.
The most likely path to the championship is España beating Francia then Argentina, with a 58.9% probability of completing this run.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup semi-finals feature 3 European and 1 South American teams.
The four remaining teams have a combined 7 World Cup titles in history.
The 2026 World Cup final will be held on 19 de julio de 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford.
This is the first World Cup with 48 teams, narrowed down to the final four: Francia, España, Inglaterra, and Argentina.
The third-place match between the semi-final losers will take place on 18 de julio de 2026.
Only one of Francia, España, Inglaterra, and Argentina can lift the trophy after the final on 19 de julio de 2026.
Confederation representation in the final four stands at UEFA 3, CONMEBOL 1, and 0 from other regions.
Current simulations across 100,000 iterations make España the outright favourite heading into the last four.
MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford hosts the final, while the semi-finals are contested before that championship showdown.
With the field reduced to four nations, every remaining match carries direct title implications for Francia, España, Inglaterra, and Argentina.